US and Israeli attacks on Iran have killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top security officials, prompting Tehran to launch retaliatory strikes on 27 US bases in the Middle East and Israeli military facilities, with explosions also reported in Qatar and the UAE.
Following these dramatic events, Luciano Zaccara, an Iran analyst, and Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, joined Al Jazeera to discuss the fallout.
Zaccara argued that despite the loss of key figures, Iran’s leadership transition is proceeding according to a pre-arranged plan. He noted the regime’s collective decision-making structure ensures stability, suggesting President Trump may ultimately seek “regime surrender” to impose a new nuclear deal rather than complete collapse.
Pinkas stated from Tel Aviv that regime change cannot be achieved by military action alone, as Iran’s system is ideological and hierarchical.
He highlighted a divergence between US and Israeli interests, with Trump possibly looking to declare victory and negotiate, while Prime Minister Netanyahu may seek the Islamic Republic’s downfall to reshape his legacy.
Pinkas concluded that weakening the regime is not the same as ending it.
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